1. Try to estimate the Market potential and the sales potential for your product in the Netherlands in the year 2015 using the break down approach or the build-up approach.
The total market potential for the Netherlands would be the total number of households which is roughly 8 million (7.7 million per January 1st 2015) (clo, 2016) . I’m taking this number because Doritos is something that is purchased, usually, per household. There are exceptions, of course. But there are always exceptions. I thought about ways to slim down the number, but Doritos is cheap and readily available to anyone who should wish it. There are of course people who prefer other crisps such as Lays or Pringles, but it is impossible to give an accurate figure on this, since there has been no research into this.
From what I could find on Euromonitor, it tells me that the total market share of Doritos is 1.7% of the total of all savoury snacks. (Euromonitor, 2016) (Euromonitor, 2016) so, to find the sales potential I took that 1.7% out of the 8 million market potential, which is 8.000.000/100*1.7=136.000
So, the sales potential is roughly 136 thousand.
2. Give three valid arguments why the company should write a marketing plan for the Dutch market for your product. Can you think of any arguments not to write a marketing plan?
First of all, you need to know what you’re aiming to accomplish. If you do not know what you’re trying reach, you have nothing to aim for, and you won’t be able to do anything, since you will not know what you would need to do. Simply said; you need a goal, if you don’t have this, you will fail.
You need to know how to reach your clients, what they’re interested in and any and all cultural factors that might help you or get in your way. All of this can be discovered by making a marketing plan, it will help you understand the people of the country your trying to sell to, and by knowing these people you can play into their wishes, which will allow you to sell your product.
A marketing plan also includes a SWOT analysis, which is very important to have, because it can help you understand what to do and what to be weary of. It will show you the things you need to look out for and the things you can use to increase your revenue.
A reason not to write one might be that it costs a lot of time and manpower, and here time is quite literally money. Of course, on the long run it would be money well invested, but for a company that is already trying to enter a new market, this would add even more costs, and take away employees that could be used elsewhere.
3. If you were asked to develop a sales forecast for your product for the years 2016, 2017 and 2018, which forecasting technique would you use? Give two advantages and two disadvantages of the chosen forecasting technique.
I would use a time series analysis.
Doritos is a company that has existed for a long time, and therefore this becomes a viable option. Companies that have not been around for as long will not have this option because this type of forecasting requires a history to analyse.
Since the accuracy and therefore validity of the time series analysis hinge on whether or not the past sales pattern will continue, it is better for this to be used by a company with a long history, since there is more for them to see, which gives you a larger chance of it actually being accurate. it is also suitable for Doritos because this analysis is only suitable for products which have a stable demand, which Doritos has.
An advantage is that through the trend analysis you can see whether or not your sales figures are rising, falling or not changing much altogether.
Another advantage is that it can show you if holidays or the season of the year have an influence on your products sales.
To summarize, the great thing about this analysis is all the different analyses you have to use to get the final conclusion. They all add up for many different viewpoints which give you a lot of great and useful information.
A disadvantage to this particular analysis is that it is very time consuming. A trend analysis needs many years to determine whether your sales are rising, falling or staying the same. And the cycle analysis as well takes up some years of time.
Because of the time it takes, it is also very costly. To make these analyses you need to use some of your employees for this specific thing for a very long time, which will cost great amounts of money, and it isn’t even guaranteed to be very accurate.